Buffalo Bills

What you need to know (2023 Season):

• Record: 11-6 (1st in AFC East / #2 seed in playoffs)

• Points Per Game: 26.5 (6th)

• Total Offense: 4th (374.5 yards/game)

  • Passing: 8th (244.4/game)

  • Rushing: 7th (130.1/game)

It was week 10, and the Buffalo Bills were outside the playoff bubble looking in after a Monday Night Football loss to the Denver Broncos. They had a 5-5 record and were struggling to finish games. Then they found their magic, ending the season winning six of their last seven, including a week 18 matchup against the Miami Dolphins for the AFC East title. The Buffalo Bills remain a strong contender within a tough AFC, but there are a lot of new faces to learn on both sides of the ball.

• Key Additions: Mitchell Trubisky (Signed from Steelers)

• Draft Picks: None

• Notable Loses: Kyle Allen (Signed with Steelers)

Josh Allen was the only quarterback to attempt a pass for the Buffalo Bills a season ago. Key additions and notable losses are loose terms in this case, but it’s always good to know who the backup is in a “what-if” scenario. Despite what you think of Mitchell Trubisky, he’s an upgrade over Kyle Allen and has a similar playstyle to Josh Allen.

The Buffalo Bills offense runs through Josh Allen. He simply doesn’t get enough credit for the success of the Buffalo Bills since his arrival. In fantasy, Allen has been a top 3 quarterback in four straight seasons and top 12 in five consecutive. Despite having 568 rush attempts during that span, Josh Allen hasn’t missed a game due to injury. Allen is a sturdy player and is a good bet to make another run as a top 3 fantasy quarterback.

The Backfield

• Key Additions: None

• Draft Picks: Ray Davis (4th Round)

• Notable Loses: Latavius Murray (Free Agent), Damien Harris (Retired)

James Cook greatly benefited this offseason. His biggest competition for touches (from other running backs) were Latavius Murray, still a free agent, and Damien Harris, who retired. Both were big-bodied goal-line backs taking away red zone work from Cook. James Cook only had two rushing touchdowns a season ago, so any bump in that stat will be beneficial to his season-long value. Cook, on paper, looks to be one of the few workhorsebacks in the league, but if he can’t find the endzone consistently, it’ll severely cap his ceiling. After all, he’s still competing with Josh Allen for red zone carries too. Allen himself has averaged nine rushing touchdowns per season for his career, so he’ll be the biggest sniper to James Cook in that department. Overall, James Cook has a safe weekly floor with his volume alone, but he’ll need to improve in the touchdown category if he wants to be considered in the elite fantasy running back conversation. Ray Davis is the only other player in the backfield with fantasy potential. He could step into that Damien Harris/Latavius Murray role as the team’s RB2. Could be a sneaky last-round selection.

The Pass-Catchers

• Key Additions: Curtis Samuel (Signed from Commanders), Mack Hollins (Signed from Falcons), Chase Claypool (Signed from Dolphins)

• Draft Picks: Keon Coleman (2nd Round)

• Notable Loses: Stefon Diggs (Traded to Texans), Gabe Davis (Signed with Jaguars)

The Buffalo Bills will be going through some growing pains in the wide receiver room. Stefon Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans and Gabe Davis left in free agency to sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills have 308 vacated targets, the second largest in the league. That’s 56.51% of their targets gone from a season ago, mainly from the Diggs and Davis departures. The Bills are going to attempt and replace their production with the combination of newcomers Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool, and Keon Coleman. Although Samuel is mainly a gadget player, Hollins is a poor man’s field-stretcher, Chase Claypool hasn’t done much since his rookie season and Keon Coleman is just a rookie. Of this group, Coleman certainly has the highest ceiling. He was Buffalo’s first pick in the draft and they have high hopes for him. The spreadsheet warriors might be fading him, but watching his interviews, he’s become a fan favorite and his personality lights up a room.

Along with the newcomers, the Bills will have promising third-year receiver, Khalil Shakir. In games he played over 50% of the snaps (9 games), he averaged 10.18 PPG. With both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, his snaps, targets, and production should increase. Tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are among the top duos in the league. Knox falls into that low-end TE2 or TE3 range. As a rookie, Dalton Kincaid was second on the team with 91 targets. Don’t be surprised if he leads the team in most major receiving categories this season and sees north of 100 targets in 2024. Finishing as the TE11 last year, Kincaid could skyrocket into the top 5 this upcoming season.

2024 Fantasy Summary

It’s simple really. It’s going to be the Josh Allen show in Buffalo this season. It’s going to have to be if they want any shot at the Super Bowl. Regardless of the clear downgrades at wide receiver, Allen still has serviceable pieces around him to continue his streak as a top 3 fantasy quarterback. It just might be a rocky start to the season. James Cook was an RB1 last season and has the upside to go back-to-back years with the volume he should get in a good offense, but the lack of touchdowns is worrisome. Ray Davis should be on the shortlist of players to gamble on for your last selection. There are over 100 “available” rush attempts from last season up for grabs and Davis could be a sneaky player to see 100 touches in a very good offense.

There might be a stampede of pass-catchers, but there’s only three to four worth herding in redraft. Khalil Shakir could be the top wide receiver and improve on his impressive finish last season. I see him as a WR3 with WR2 upside. Keon Coleman is going to be given every opportunity to succeed in Buffalo given his high draft capital, he’ll fall in a similar range as Shakir, a WR3 with upside. In a dart throw, Curtis Samuel could offer some flex-appeal if he can carve out a role and rapport with Josh Allen. Samuel is more likely to be a popular week 1 waiver wire addition than a draft selection. Dalton Kincaid should be the top option in the passing game this season. Kincaid has top 5 potential at the tight-end position this year. His counterpart, Dawson Knox, still offers some value, but likely won’t be drafted in many leagues. He’ll be a bye-week filler in most cases.